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What are Value bets in sports betting


It has never been a worse time for sports betting than now, when there are not sports at all out there. Indeed if you don't consider living-room Darts competitions or Esports also part of the game. While all bookmakers are switching from sportsbooks to online casino, we do the exact opposite.

On the other hand, this vacuum when  there is nothing distracting our minds gives us space to learn how to do it. Do what? Approach a sportsbook correctly. Many punters believe that bookmakers are risk takers but believe or not they are not. With each fixture, with each match there is a market margin 3%-15% and that is the spot where bookmakers make money.

The hard sports betting theory explained easy

What are odds

Odds are just the probability expressed in a different way. Let's say we have decimal odds 2.00. This equals to probability 50%. How did we get that? 1/2.00=0.5. Expression in different formats such as American odds or fractional odds is for now not important.

What is the bookmakers payout

As mentioned above, there is a market margin that bookmakers put on each fixture. Let's say the tennis odds the following

Djokovich: 1.9 Nadal: 1.9

In a fair market the sum of chances should be 100%, right? Let's check out where we are. 1/1.9 + 1/1.9 = 0.526... + 0.526... = 1.0526 looks like there is 95% bookmakers payout. To get there you simply divide 1 by 1.0526.

How are the odds created

This is the most important question of all. We have to realize that all odds are just an opinion based on predictions. I give you an easy to understand example. We roll a dice. There are 6 possible outcomes and we know each outcome has a chance of 1/6. This is simply a fact. There is nothing like that in let's say football predictions. When Liverpool played against Manchester United at Anfield in 2019/2020 the odds were 1.6. But why? How do we know the chance of home win 62.5% (1/1.6). The answer is "We don't know". The football predictions are based on statistical and mathematical models - this is not any law of mother nature.

Based on the football predictions we get football value bets and the difference between the odds given by a bookmaker and the predicted odds are our chance of winning. There are however many value bets theories and it is up to you which way you go.

How do you know you are going the right way?

There is only one way to measure your success and that is the betting results. Are you long term losing money? Your predictions most likely suck. Are you long term winning? You are most likely using the right football prediction and value bets model. Why did I use "most likely"? Because statistics is a bitch. You know there is a chance that you get struck by lightning 3 times in a year. The chance is small but still possible. And so is possible for the best punter to lose it all but also for the worst one to win. That is my point.

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