Why bookmakers give value bets?

Why bookmakers give value bets?

27/08/2020

The most important rule written in the unwritten bible of a professional punter says.

Use mathematical predictions, search for a value bet and bet only on the fixtures showing statistical advantage.

Now the question is: Why the hell give all the bookmakers statistical advantage or a value bet at all?

They have the market margin advantage, they have really good mathematical models, they have professionals working for them and still you can find a value bet.

There are more answers to this question, but it is important to realize that besides the mentioned advantages, bookies also deal with disadvantages. Enjoy the list of disadvantages the bookmakers have to deal with.

Sure bets

Have you ever realized that all the bookies have similar odds? There are literally tens of thousands bookmakers around the world, but they have somehow all coordination in their odds. That means, if there was a match between Tyson Fury and AJ, you will not find a contradiction in odds. I bet, there are bookmakers who think AJ will win and there are bookmakers thinking the opposite.

If they would not come up with a compromise, they would be giving a sure bet with guaranteed win for the punters. Let's imagine I am a bookie A who thinks AJ will destroy Tyson and set the odds as following:

Win AJ 1.3 / Win Tyson Fury 3.8

Now imagine I am a bookie B who thinks Tyson will destroy AJ and set the odds as following:

Win AJ 2.6 / Win Tyson Fury 1.5

All would be fine if the punters would be faithful enough to bet only with me. But they are not. Punters know that odds comparison makes sense and will find these contradictions. What would be the right thing to do?

They bet On AJ winning with Bookmaker A and Tyson Fury winning with Bookmaker B. With this extreme case would the punters be able to earn between 54.39% and 55.8%.

This example shows that bookies are forced to coordinate their odds in order to avoid sure bets, leaving some space for value bets.

Football results are not a coin toss

While the coin toss results are a law of nature giving 50% on heads and the same on tails, the football results is a whole different story. You don't know the moods of the key player and if you do, you don't know how it affects the game. You don't know how if the goalkeeper is not going to mess up. You don't know how big the impact of the new strict coach. Will it be negative or positive?... come up with other scenarios.

The football prediction formula has many parameters and no matter what, you will not have them either. The key is to recognize the key factors and come up with your predictions. And you might be surprised to see completely different results than those given by a bookmaker.

Any football predictions are just an opinion and that is why bookmakers give a value bet quite often.

There are also other reasons why bookmakers give the value bets, but the mentioned ones are the most crucial.

What exactly is the key for the mathematical value bet?

Let's imagine you found 100 value bets with 10% advantage and placed 100 bets with $10 stake. How much can you expect to win? With the total stake $10 x 100 = $1000 you can expect to win $100. Does this number sound like not enough? I know it does, but this is what you should expect and if you want to succeed, this is what you should aim for.

Even the mentioned 10% is a good result. In the long run you can expect to make about 5% from your stakes. This is how the bookmakers earn with market margin. Value bets are exactly like a market margin, but you have the advantage.

You simply compare the odds given by a bookmaker with the odds you predicted and chose the ones giving the highest value. I recommend you to skip the values under 5%. Those might not bring convincing results.

Expectations like a combo ticket with 20 fixtures bringing you $100 000 each time is nonsense. If anybody will try to sell you this promise, he is a liar and should be blocked, reported... whatever you decide.

 

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